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ID:433
Title:Capital Chronicle
URL:http://alzahr.blogspot.com/
Category:Business: Investment
Description:An investment blog written by Rawdon Adams.
Casino Capitalism: hedge it! - 2012-04-19 20:02:00

“It is usually agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges. That the sins of the London Stock Exchange are less than those of Wall Street may be due, not so much to differences in national character, as to the fact that to the average Englishman Throgmorton Street is, compared with Wall Street to the average American, inaccessible and very expensive”
When JM Keynes wrote that inThe General Theory of Employment, Interest and Moneyit is certain he was not on the lookout for a gap in the market in order to create a gambling service for every pocket. 

Still, the more famous casino quote from chapter 12:

“When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done”
does rest onlikelihoodnot certainty. So with this allowance for even improbable outcomes Mr. Keynes perhaps would not be surprised that betting companies have come to resemble capital exchanges. Or miss the irony of a relative value trade hedging the two.

Here are a couple of graphs showing just how much the London Stock Exchange and the sports betting and gaming company William Hill, plc have become substitutes since the turn of the year.


These are 30 minute intra-day observations from a cointegration analysis going back to mid December 2011. Even after application of the UK’s Tobin TaxStamp Duty it has been a neutral and profitable trade.

But - and in keeping with the Spirit of the Times - those opposed to transaction taxes on the grounds of principle will side-step the 0.5% by using Contracts For Difference. Sold, in a neat twist, by one of William Hills’ financial market betting company competitors.

For more on Keynes and his investing methods see thisexcellent recent paperneatly summarised by CXO Advisory Grouphere.



Still time to change those francs to euros! - 2012-01-18 10:05:00
Limited time offer, ends 17 February!

Not only have the New Year sales just kicked off in France (the dates of which are governed by legislation, an interesting curio) but you can still get a bargain for those old francs under the mattress!

You read right. Take your Pierre and Marie Curies, your Eiffels, your Cézannes and your Debussys - coins no longer accepted, navré - down to your local Banque de France and get...euros (while stocks last)!Affaire!

Who says the EFSF is illusory and circular?




LulzSec forgive us our debts (and other 2012 predictions) - 2011-12-26 18:53:00

Debts forgiven! 

In a scene reminiscent of the "adult toy" revenge scene from theGirl with the Dragon Tattoothe LulzSec hacker group declare their frustration with the rigidity of personal debt obligations that, they claim, hinder corporate investment in higher speed internet gaming infrastructure (“no one will be able to afford it if they build it”).  

They launch a massive and coordinated hack of retail bank computer networks across the globe erasing household mortgage records (taking the time to digitally tattoo the word "Occupied" in all data fields) and thereby inadvertently solve a hitherto intractable piece of the global debt crisis.Until, that is, lenders restore their Fukushima-proof backup catastrophe storage systems and put Mummy and Daddy back on the debt hook.


Other natural substances overlooked

Finding the “tough love” message falling, inexplicably, onstony groundMitt "Ten Grand" Romney hires the marketing geniuses behind Rennie heartburn medicine (“turns excess stomach acid into water and toother natural substances”) to sell the austerity/debt acid message ahead of the November election. 

Incumbent President Obama, considered by many to have long drawn a veil over the “other natural substances” piece of the equation, takes a leaf from web spam methods instead with a  blitz campaign of TV spots: “Solve your debt issues quick – and in all cases just after 6 November, 2012”; “Get ready for new economic feats – shortly after November 6, 2012”; “Do you wish to have the best growth of your life starting from 7 November, 2012?”


HMRC to promisetransparencyinvisibility on tax deals
A stunning 11thhour inclusion in the 2012 London summer Olympics of the popular but misunderstood sport of Corporate Tax Avoidance causes confusion when the United Kingdom's collector of taxes, HM Revenue& Customs, instead of arbitrating,enters as a contestantalongside such renown unofficial underground champions as Goldman Sachs, Vodafone and Google.

All entrants withdraw when it becomes clear that the last time pure gold was used to make Olympic winners’ medals was in 1912.

It subsequently emerges that Goldman had hedged such a result by, first, persuading Lord Coe of the 2012 Olympic Organising Committee to write Event Default Swaps as a 'riskless' source of revenue and, second, then buying up the entire contract inventory.


Thank you, China - and we mean it this time

In a remarkable show of Sino-love both the USSenate and Congress pass the “Renmimbi Manipulation Appreciation Act” officially congratulating the Chinese government for its foresight in, to quoteSenator Lindsey Grahaminterviewed from his seaside villa in Hainan(so much more affordable than Myrtle Beach), “getting the balance right between stealing our jobs, creating  massive trade-surpluses for China and then letting the renmimbi rise strongly for 2 years to levels where acquisition of our assets became a viable proposition”. 

House guest ECB President Mario “Brothers” Draghi joked (well, at least a smile was on his face) that China “should not forget to also take a look at the Euro banking system for even more overpriced asset deals”.

Pouring the drinks, China’s President Hu Jintao confesses that his country has indeed been manipulating the renminbi but that he was gratified everything worked out for the common good just like Alan Greenspan said it would.


Economic Holy Grail found! Maybe...
 
11. Thou shall buy clothes and consumer electronics
In a long and desperately awaited development, Large Hadron Collider (LHC) economists move tantalizingly closer to detecting the elusive “God’s Work Particle”. 

Formally named the Asett20(bub)12particle it is of the mysterious “boson” type considered by incumbent policymakers key to underpinning capitalism by uniting the “capital” quark and its antiquark, "labour". The multi trillion dollar LHC was conceived to recreate the conditions immediately before the 2001 Tech Wreck and the 2009 Great Recession. 

Conclusive evidence of the Asett20(bub)12particle’s existence is expected, once again, to be prematurely announced by the IMF in July.



(Happy New Year! )